Elections in one of the largest states of India, Uttar Pradesh will be starting sooner now. Dates set, parties busy campaigning. The major battle for the chief minister is to be fought between 4 of the major political parties of India i.e. Bharatiya Janata Party, (congress plus samajwadi party), Bahujan samaj party. In total of 403 assembly constituencies, elections are going to occur in 7 phases.
The CM candidate for samajwadi party and congress alliance is akhilesh yadav , for BSP it is Mayawati. However BjP is yet to announce its CM candidate but there are rumours for yogi adityanath.
ISSUE OF UTTARPRADESH
Out of all the major issues like law and order, poverty, education, electricity etc, the one which always tops the list in the campaigns is caste and religion from the time immemorial in up. Most of the parties, majority of them have this one as their queen card. The rest of the core problems are always put aside.
As per 2011 census, total of UP population is 199,581,477. (If UP was a nationit would be fifth largest in the world.) The Demographic study of UP states that there are 79.3% of hindus and 19.31% of muslims and only 1.01% from other religion. On further dividing hindu community, there are 21.1% dalits, 40% obcs and 22% upper caste people.
The main agenda for political parties there in UP is caste and religion. Be it BSP or (congress+ SP), both are in diehard favour of dalit and muslim appeasement. Whereas on the other hand BJP is going with its patent “सबका साथ,सबका विकास” not dividing the voters in any caste or creed just talking about development.
So going by their agenda BSP and (Congress+SP) are dividing the votes of 19% muslims and 21.1% dalits (i.e.40.1% votes). According to previous elections even if BSP and (congress+SP) share a 40%-60% share of 40.1% then BSP gets 16.4% votes and the alliance gets 24.06% votes. They can also have some share of OBC and upper caste votes making them nearly 20% for BSP and 30% for the alliance. Still BJP gets the larger share of votes.
The survey conducted by reliable sources approximates the votes share and seats as:-
Can there be BJP-BSP coalition in case of hung parliament?
Due to close war between BJP and (congress+SP) there can come a condition of balanced parliament. The major thing to think about is will BJP in that case form an alliance with BSP and form a coalition government?
In it’s latest rally BJP targeted Samajwadi Party , Bahujan Samaj Party and congress calling them a cocktail of corruption and crime. BJP spokesman Shrikant Sharma quoted “ In last 15 years bua (mayawati), babua (akhilesh) and yuvraj (rahul) have robbed UP. They have put the development in arrest in the state.”
On the other hand mayawati is confident that BSP alone can stop modi government by defeating BJP in UP.
During demonetisation BJP stated that demonetisation will hit trading tickets for cash by SP and BSP.
There has been a time when there were chances building up between BJP and BSP once upon a time during another UP elections, where the crisis that haunted the alliance was assembly speaker’s post. During the adamant, BSP admitted of calling BJP a cobra adding a cobra is less harmful than BJP. But then the alliance was formed on certain conditions and there was Mayawati the full term CM of UP in 2002. Even in 1995 mayawati had obtained support of BJP to become CM, but later after president’s rule BJP withdrew its support and fresh elections were conducted.
Things have been sour between BJP and BSP but then the chances of their coalition cannot be ruled out completely.